Message Board

Members' Opinion Polls

Message board > Members' Opinion Polls > Members' poll: Deal or No Deal

Deal or No Deal

Deal		7%

No deal		26%

I calcuate (total prize fund left / boxes remaining) while Edmonds is talking to the bank and if it's lower than the offer then it's Deal		22%

I have no idea what you're talking about		44%

Total: 27 members' votes

by Sad fresher mathmo - Sun 8th Jan 2006, 6:08pm

What can I say, I'm a mathmo, also you have to remember you have to pick 3 boxes in each round when working out estimated prize!

by non-mathmo - Sun 8th Jan 2006, 8:22pm

Sad fresher mathmo said: also you have to remember you have to pick 3 boxes in each round when working out estimated prize!

How does that change the calculation? Are not your odds of having a prize of greater than the offer the same regardless of how quickly you eliminate the boxes... or have I missed something?

by Not-as-sad-as-he-could-be Mathmo - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 9:17am

non-mathmo said: How does that change the calculation? Are not your odds of having a prize of greater than the offer the same regardless of how quickly you eliminate the boxes... or have I missed something?

You have to work t the chances of picking off the big prizes in your next 3, thus seriously lowering your prize money, if you were really sad, you could work out a huge probability based formula to say how much each box was worth.

by jmg - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 9:59am

Simon said: Deal or No Deal

For the record, I think this show is rubbish and I only watched it once, so I'll probably get the amounts wrong, but the choice of whether to make a deal or not has a lot to do with your appetite for risk, rather than simply the expected value of the remaining boxes.
For instance, if the remaining boxes were £1, £10 and £100,000 then if you open one box at random your expected winning is roughly £33K. However, if the bank offered me £25K then I'd probably accept it, since it's risk free and despite the high expectation, I still have a 2/3 chance of walking away with £10 or less if I play on.
In fact, how about the bank offers you £33,000 (which is lower than your expected return if you play on)? Would anyone seriously not accept that deal?

by Mike - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 10:12am

jmg said: the choice of whether to make a deal or not has a lot to do with your appetite for risk, rather than simply the expected value of the remaining boxes.

See also the St. Petersburg Paradox and the Allais Paradox

by Bryn - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 4:45pm

I have no idea what you're talking about: 60%

For those 60% who voted as I did, see here for an explanation and even an online version of the game.

by Simon - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 5:47pm

I have no idea what you're talking about: 60%

More information is available here.
It's interesting how the format of this show varies so much from country to country. Channel 4 have gone for quite a homely, low-tech version which largely relies on the charisma and experience of Edmonds as a game show host to bring it off. The version I saw in Australia was shorter than Channel 4's (25 mins v 40 mins) and far slicker - a lot more like Who Wants to Be a Millionaire in style. The American version seems to involve lots of models in swimwear and a bigger prize fund. The Italian version is a 2 hour extravaganza which has breaks for live music, etc.
Compare this to Who Wants... where they were very strict about using the same music and lighting and foreign presenters were even encouraged to copy Chris Tarrant's dress sense and mannerisms...

(If there was a prize for obscure and pointless posts on this website (now there's a subject for a poll...), I think this would be a contender.)

by Richard - Mon 9th Jan 2006, 10:20pm

I first saw the French version back in early September, a couple of months before the british one aired. They had the standard boxes, but also booby prizes like a brick, mirror, in addition to the monetary prizes.

Their box-holders seemed to be a girl named after a selected number of French departements. Madamoiselle Val d'Oise etc...

by If its Noel: No Deal - Tue 10th Jan 2006, 8:46pm

i particularly like the quiz on the channel four version of the website called "Are you a giver or a taker?"

by Andy - Tue 10th Jan 2006, 9:37pm

If its Noel: No Deal said: i particularly like the quiz on the channel four version of the website called "Are you a giver or a taker?"

That copuld be next weeks poll!!!